The Borderless World:
Power and Strategy in the Interlinked Economy. By Kenichi Ohmae.
Harper Press: New York, 1991.
One of the lessons I've learned from writing books and
articles is that writing about management is safe. But writing about international
trade is dangerous. When I published Triad Power in 1985, the financial Times
called it "one of the most succinct and elegant descriptions of the forces
behind the growing globalization of industries and products." A year or
two later they ran a headline that called me "Japan's Only Management
Guru."
But when I wrote about trade issues in The Wall Street journal, things were different. Some of my friends, even a few American colleagues at my consulting firm, McKinsey & Company, worried that I had become an apologist for Japan, that I wasn't being objective about Japan's protectionism and other matters. People even accused me of being an agent for the Ministry of International Trade and Industry.
When in 1983 I outlined in Japan Business: Obstacles and
Opportunities the many new kinds of alliances and collaborative ventures being
formed in autos, electronics, and other industries, some argued that not one of
these alliances had worked and that they were really Trojan horses that let the
Japanese get into foreign markets. I wasn't believed when I stated in an
interview with Fortune magazine that the problem for semiconductor
manufacturers wasn't the Japanese but the fact that it was becoming a
high-fixed-cost; process industry. Yet today Malaysia is the largest exporter
of commodity chips.
Why does a nuclear engineer turned management consultant
write about trade? It wasn't to defend Japan. I was reacting to forces at work
that were becoming very powerful and changing the way our clients operated.
About fifty Japanese companies account for 75 percent of its
exports to the United States. My colleagues at McKinsey and I know them very
well either as clients or as competitors of clients. As their position has
changed, so has the focus of our work as management consultants.
Initially we worked to help develop products, strategies,
organizations, people, and management systems. Our goal was to develop good
products and sell more for less cost. And if we were successful, our clients
would export those products to some overseas countries. But for the most part,
our planning horizon did not extend beyond national borders.
The deregulation of the financial markets complicated the
situation. After deregulation, corporations could use alternatives to create wealth
in key regions of the world in addition to simple manufacturing and selling. To
help them gain a market share it was necessary to learn about macroeconomics as
well as currency and financial markets.
Protectionism or the threat of it accelerated corporations'
efforts to transfer key components of their business systems away from
headquarters. That development forced us to think about organization on a
global scale and the nature of protectionism itself. I've worked with many
large corporations, helping them move from the export-oriented stage of
organization to local production and product development, and from the
one-headquarters to a four-regional-headquarters model. I have worked with
European, American, and Asian corporations to help them establish better and
stronger positions in Japan as well. The speed with which the psychology of key
managers in these corporations has moved-from local to global, from a
nation-based to universal value system, from a headquarters-driven management
style to local, market-driven decision making-has been surprising. Words such
as overseas operations, affiliates, and subsidiaries are disappearing. Nothing
is "overseas" any longer. I was in the right place at the right time
to observe impressive groups of managers-not all Japanese-achieve these
transitions in a relatively short period.
This book, then, pulls together my understanding and
experience of business strategy and competition with my beliefs and analysis of
macroeconomic issues. It starts out as a book about strategy and the
organization of international companies. Then it attacks the bureaucrats in our
governments, who are losing their power but causing great problems on their way
out the door. Finally, it begins to describe the economic world toward which we
are moving.
By "strategy" I mean creating sustaining values
for the customer far better than those of competitors. It therefore means first
of all invention and the commercialization of invention. Most people in big
companies have forgotten how to invent. They know how to buy and sell
businesses or produce me-too products, but they don't develop products that are
really better. Nor do they develop new businesses to support these new ideas.
I don't mean just large-scale, high-tech development
projects like High Definition Television (HDTV), but products used everyday by
most men and women. How do you make a coffeepot, for example, that actually
makes better coffee? Or a bubble bath that really is good for your skin? How
many product managers staring at their computer screens do you think could do
that? Not many. They're too worried about competition and market share and
profitability figures. I believe it's time for big companies to relearn the art
of invention. But this time they must learn to manage invention in industries
or businesses that are global, where you have to get world-scale economies and
yet tailor products to key markets.
Companies have to do that because more informed and
demanding customers are coalescing in all developed countries. It is they who
really have the power, not the organizations who sell to them. Most people
probably don't realize this yet despite the many articles and books on
globalization. They still think of giant multinationals forcing their will on
people in the countries in which they choose to operate. If this book has
another purpose besides helping its readers understand the fundamentals of
strategy and commercialization, it is to show how multinational companies are
truly the servants of demanding consumers around the world. It is these
customers who are driving them to operate, develop, make, and sell in many
countries at once and who in the process are helping to create a borderless
economy where trade statistics are meaningless.
If it does that, you will agree that it is time to throw the
bureaucrats out. There is a role for governments-to protect the environment, to
educate the work force, and to build a safe and comfortable social
infrastructure. When governments are slow to grasp the fact that their role has
changed from protecting their people and their natural resource base from
outside economic threats to ensuring that their people have the widest range of
choice among the best and the cheapest goods and services from around the
world-when, that is, governments still think and act like the saber-rattling,
mercantilist ruling powers of centuries past-they discourage investment and
impoverish their people. Worse, they commit their people to isolation from an
emerging world economy, which, in turn, effectively dooms them to a downward
spiral of frustrated hopes and industrial stagnation. By looking outward with
almost paranoid suspicion, fearing that exploiters will make off with whatever
of value they have, they ignore the needs of their people and destroy the value
the human capital-the people represent. In both the political and the economic
arena, as recent events in Eastern Europe have shown, the people as consumers
and as citizens-will no longer tolerate this antiquated role of government.
There are bureaucrats in the United States and Japan as
surely as there are in Eastern Europe. They miscount the trade figures and get
them wrong month after month, and in the process they provide the weapons for
economic war between nations. But their time will come too, just as it has for
bureaucrats elsewhere.
An isle is emerging that is bigger than a continent-the
Inter linked Economy (ILE) of the Triad (the United States, Europe, and Japan),
joined by aggressive economies such as Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore.
It is becoming so powerful that it has swallowed most
consumers and corporations, made traditional national borders almost disappear,
and pushed bureaucrats, politicians, and the military toward the status of
declining industries.
The emergence of the ILE has created much confusion,
particularly for those who are used to dealing with economic policies based on
conventional macroeconomic statistics that compare one nation against another.
Their theories don't work anymore. While the Keynesian economist would expect
to see jobs increase as an economy picks up, the ILE economy sometimes
disappoints them. Jobs might be created abroad instead. If the government
tightens the money supply, loans may gush in from abroad and make the nation's
monetary policy nearly meaningless. If the central bank tries to raise the
interest rate, cheaper funds flow in from elsewhere in the ILE. For all
practical purposes, the ILE has made obsolete the traditional instruments of
central bankers interest rate and money supply.
In the ILE most interest-bearing instruments have taken a
backseat to non interest-bearing (and often speculative) instruments such as
real estate, stocks, and currency exchange markets. These latter markets have
absorbed the enormous excess liquidity produced by vote-buying, deficit-ridden
governments, thereby curbing inflation. The ILE is flooded with super
liquidity, but thanks to fact that these speculative markets have large
buckets, the excess money has been contained and has not done evil (inflation)
to ordinary people.
This flow of funds is largely invisible. The traditional way
of looking at the trade statistics, based on a nation's balance with another
nation, has become obsolete, because ILE residents have learned to move their
production and other functions around. Old-fashioned bureaucrats, trying to
correct the imbalance figures, make decisions that are comparable to pouring
oil on a fire. They create barriers and artificial controls over what should be
the free flow of goods and money. Some even try to fix the figures by fiddling
with the currency exchange rate. Currency, being the conversion factor of all
tradable goods, services, and assets, changes the balance of power within the
ILE as wealth thus redistributed is dramatically different from the national
economy-based balance of power.
According to the old macroeconomist's view, the exchange
rate should change to adjust for the differences in purchasing power of
tradable goods and in rates of inflation and interest between the two countries
in question. The emergence of the ILE has made this concept obsolete. Assets
are now traded across the (old) national boundaries. Companies change hands
across borders as easily as paintings, patents, and real estate.
The ILE has a resident body of approximately 1 billion
people, enjoying on average $10,000 per capita gross national product. It is in
the ILE that most of the wealth in the world is created, consumed, and
redistributed. Participation in the ILE is key to prosperity for traditionally
isolationist nations. Only through establishment of a healthy two-way pipeline
can a developing nation prosper, for the ILE is where nations can get the best
value for what they produce. Wealth is now created in the marketplace, rather
than in colonies and in soils that contain natural resources.
In this interlinked economy, there is no such thing as
absolute losers and winners. A loser becomes relatively attractive as its
currency gets weaker and an unemployed work force emerges that is available at
reasonable cost. Winners' economies, on the other hand, are adjusted downward
toward the mean of the ILE by changes in their currency and wage rates.
Looking into the 1990s and toward the twenty-first century,
the ILE is certain to grow faster. It will encompass most East European
countries, most of Asian newly industrialized economies (NIEs), and some Latin
American countries, if they adopt ILE policies. Interdependencies of economy
create security, and that is going to be the governing thought in the ILE as
opposed to the military-based security of the Cold War regime.
The policy objective for the ILE will be ensuring the free
flow of information, money, goods, and services as well as the free migration
of people and corporations. Traditional governments will have to establish a
new single framework of global governance. Toward that end, the first and most
important step is to understand the global economy accurately. That's the
purpose of this book.
People are global when as consumers they have access to
information about goods and services from around the world. But these same
people could support protectionist representatives if all they read is rhetoric
based on archaic nationalistic sentiments. Students, even today, are learning
old economic theories that do not work in the ILE. Most of these theories were
created at the turn of the century when the national model-the closed
economy-was the model. Most statistics are still gathered based on this old
framework, and hence macroeconomic analyses tell little about what is happening
or what will happen in the world, or even in a country.
It is time for us to look at the real economy of an
interlinked world. I cannot now propose a new academic theory of economy
governing the ILE. What I have done here is to share the perspective I gained
over the years working as a practicing consultant, in the hope that readers
will appreciate the view and the potential power of the new world, toward which
we are heading. Some might be able to articulate a more rigorous economic model
to explain the dynamics of the ILE. Some might extract the political
implications of the ILE and propose a new regime to govern the world based on
today's economic realities, rather than on the old postwar regimes of the
United Nations, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the
General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, the UN Conference on Trade and
Development, and even European Community-1992, most of which are based on the
Cold War model or on the idea of North/South Clubs.
I will not be surprised if someone comes up with a proposal
for a super-governmental structure, with a taxation system for ILE residents
being evenly divided, such as one-third to the world outside of the ILE,
one-third to the immediate community in which they live, and one-third to the
country. This would reflect the view of the world I've developed over time as a
global citizen, as a resident of my community, and as a Japanese (in that
order).
Other readers might find good ideas to develop products,
strategies, and organization for the company for which they work. As an author
and management consultant, I hope that is where this book's value will be most
immediate. I would also like students to read this book before they hear all
the old theories and become so fixed in their perspective they cannot see the
world as it is and insist on trying to explain everything with the tools they
have at hand.
Trying to cover everything from product development to
international organization, from currency and trade discussions to developing
country issues may seem to be too broad an agenda. However, my feeling is that
we need to pull these traditionally isolated subjects together to describe the
characteristics of the ILE in a borderless world. My belief is we will
accumulate more and more evidence in the 1990s to describe the new ILE that is
far bigger than nation-states today, and that we will all gain legitimate
citizenship in it before long.
What follows, then, is a prediction or at least a hope that
utility will triumph over ideology. It is based on my faith in man as inventor
and in the power of informed customers to triumph over man as regulator. It's
the regulators we have to fear.